Uncertainties of climate change impacts in agriculture

Uncertainties of climate change impacts in agriculture

2015

E12531

Crop simulation models are often used to estimate the impact of climate change on agricultural production. But, simulated climate change impacts vary across agricultural impact models due to differences in model structures and parameter values. When comparing crop models with standardised inputs, uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with higher temperatures1 and CO2 concentrations2,3. These uncertainties in impact simulations are larger due to crop models, than due to downscaled general circulation models2. Impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving model routines and parameters with detailed field experimentations. However, multi-model ensemble medians also supply an improved prediction above individual models4. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity is needed to assist in the development of adaptation strategies and policies.

29:304, PROCEDIA ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

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